In my experience, the real rate dominates the pricing of inflation adjust bonds. This is important because you may have large increase in the real rate heading into inflation, and since duration is so high the the possible downside is large, even when adjusted for inflation compensation. During the inflation of the 1970's/1980's, real rates went significantly negative (an increase in bond price) before spiking above the rate of inflation (a decrease in bond price). This may be one of those assets classes where you can be right about your inflation forecast but wrong about the return of an asset class.