My impression is that you assume that gold annualized returns since 1970 is a reasonable expectation going forward. Gold had been artificially set at $35 per ounce since 1934. Nixon severed the dollar's link to gold in 1971 and Americans were finally allowed to own gold again in 1974. It was artificially held down for many years. Then it zoomed upward when "price controls" were ended. It seems unwise to assume future gold returns will be as strong as they have been for this full period. (The return from 1935 to 1970 was, of course, close to zero.) The return on gold holdings from 1935 to 2023 has been more in line with T-bill returns.