We calculate the probabilities, and if it is not close to 100% certainty we tend to disregard the result. Black swans live only in far away lands., right? Denial is our preferred and default mode. This is why ignorance is bliss. This is why Trump went into denial about Covid-19. When Wohan was shut down there was a 100% certainty that the virus would spread around the world. His administration was by the n in denial about climate change, systemic racism, financial responsibly, and, of course, moral responsibility. The pandemic was a symptom.