Using one stock is really nonsensical. Yes, there are outliers, like a stock which hit a high in a bubble, but that one stock isn't the market either. To state "it isn't always the case" while ignoring the entire population of stocks is mind boggling. I tell you what, you invest in stocks that earnings are decreasing and I will invest in stocks where earnings are increasing, and let's compare returns over the next 1, 3, 5 or 10 years. The fact that I know you aren't crazy enough to invest only in stocks with decreasing earnings should tell you how flawed your analysis is.