Kirk, I believe you are confusing Ensemble Active Management with a multi-managed portfolio. This has proven to be such a common mis-understanding that we built out a full page within Section III clarifying the differences between the two.
All of the live EAM performance data to date (and it grows by the week) validates that EAM Portfolios do NOT trend to the mean. See Section IV, Performance Metrics 1-4.
The added alpha generated by the application of Ensemble Methods to underlying managers’ predictive engines has shown to drive EAM performance to thresholds substantially better than traditional active. Multi-managed portfolios do trend to the mean because these approaches are benefiting from additional risk management, but not additional alpha.
Two final thoughts. First, it does not appear that EAM Portfolios require “timing”. Second, shouldn’t active managers aspire to have “happy clienteles” well more than 50% of the time.