Hi Michael, there will naturally always be businesses that survive and prosper, but identiying these beforehand seems almost impossible, as otherwise mutual fund and hedge fund managers would generate (more) alpha.

We agree that bonds are not the solution, but we would be skeptical that equities will be attractive in the long-term given negative demographics (we're not even talking about debt, another concern).

It's worth recalling that most investors suffer from survivorship bias by focusing on the US, arguably the most successful equity market. There are plenty of countries were stock markets suffered decade-long declines and were closed. The Credit Suisse Annual Investment Year Book is an excellent study for getting a long-term perspective on the riskiness of stocks.

Best regards, Nicolas