Recast the same facts and it sounds as true as it likely is...not

“Hey, you. Come here. Did you know that 100 dollars invested five years ago is now 333 dollars.

What if I told you I had a little financial secret 8 ball that could tell you exactly when and how to rebalance. This magic ball would tell you how to become a MARKET TIMER.

And IF you had perfect market timing like every MARKET TIMER does THEN you get achieve the same 333 with only having put 50 dollars down. That’s right. Same outcome with only half the money.

What do you do with the other 50? Well, let’s be fair. This secret 8 ball didn’t come cheap so maybe I take 25 and then you just LOCK in the other 25 as ALPHA. Book it when it shows up, this is my last secret ball so it’s yours now. I am out of here with my 35.”

You guys nailed it on the head. It’s not about what you rebalance the 50 into at all. That doesn’t matter. What matters is the presumption that perfect hindsight bias of identifying a peak and trough can lead to perfect foresight of the next peak and trough. In other words, do you really believe he has a secret 8 ball. Why does he need your money?