Don't think I would have taken your bet. I live in Australia, and
poll ratings are similar. That politicians and news media rate lowest should probably be of great concern. But no. Black swans will abound because no one is seeing or bothering to respond to long, slow build up, little by little, until no longer can be contained ----financial, bushfire, stock market, volcano eruption, virus, depression...... The big worry is that two black swans might arrive round the same time. Maybe they have!
Take care.