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Notices
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Emil Kalinowski (not verified)
20th February 2020 | 10:27am

Hi Sandy. I am very happy you brought age to my attention. So, an age-adjusted employment-to-population ratio would be a more nuanced view of employment gain potential? That sounds reasonable to me. Do you have any recommendations where I may look to learn more about this? Perhaps the work of Neil Howe? And, no doubt, as you rightly point out the United States is in significantly better demographic shape than many of the world's top economies. Still, I would be surprised to learn if the age-adjusted employment-to-population ratio would suggest that the US doing "blockbuster" or that employment gains are "surging" as the financial press described two of the last three employment reports. Indeed, if you compare the "blockbuster" number to just the post-2008 era it is not 'super-awesome' even to this low-growth period. And that is my overriding theme of the article, the US economy presently - compared to itself - is in a 13-year malaise, a condition so poor that it is comparable to some of the worst economic doldrums of the past 150 years. An article by Jeff Snider yesterday looked payroll gains in the US over the past 70 years of business cycles. He doesn't adjust for age but his graphs do show how poor the present run is, even though it avoided recession. Recommended (as is all his work): https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/02/18/the-real-f-ing-boom/