Kirk,

Thank you.

If I understand you correctly, the question is: How do we read news about the Fed?

As you noted, the Fed claims to be data dependent. In practice, however, their actions reflect a variety of political considerations.

(Sidenote for CFAs outside the USA: The U.S. Federal Reserve, the "Fed" has a mandate from Congress to manage both employment and inflation. The goals of the Fed are "to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates." This is the stated goal of Fed policy, according to Congress.)

These economic variables that are heavily weighted with political overtones. I honestly don't know how to separate politics from economics when I read news about the Fed. I'm not sure it's possible.

So what do I do? I rely heavily on third-party research when I interpret the Fed's actions. DataTrek is good at deciphering market expectations about future rate cuts, and Jeff Miller is good at deciphering market sentiment and media narratives.

I hope this helps.

Rob