Thank you for sharing your insights. I have few remarks/questions:
- the beta anchor portion of all mutual fund should mathematically eliminate the alpha generated by the high conviction portion, in the context of active underperforming passive. That does not appear obvious when we look at the different probabilities of success you provided?
- There is a widespread tendency among PMs to put bigger weights on more defensive stocks ( so called low beta), implying that higher weight does not equal necessarily high conviction but just a risk mitigation behaviour.
- As the low volatility style has outperformed substantially over more than 10 years, this could simply explain the outperformance of the high conviction stocks. That could just mean that there is no sustainable skill out there, just exposure to the right style combined with risk control.