When it comes to forcasting, we can find farm of rules which seasonal farmers planted to be harvested when too late. Such plants are non organic and chemical used accordingly. It is us to bring rules to surface and implant them in economic environment including conditions and constraints. But what if we could put a basis in an architecture manner as a building block and framework applicable to variety of problems without any sort of limitation.

Breathing, that's right. How do you feel when your breathing rhythm changes? Do you feel good or bad? Ofcourse it depends on. When exercising, we feel good and energized but in panic, vice versa. In quants manner, both are same. But in qualitative manner they are different.

Economy is functioning like that. And it could be translated to a cycle with 4 stages. Decline, accumulation, advance and distribution. This is always happening, all the time. It could get fast or slow, accelerated or deceleratied because of many many events behind such behavioural change. This could be considered as a framework to base other forecasting methods on. This is just to show how to develop a framework to be efficient and elegant enough to be used as a basis in different economic conditions with constraints.

Now the question is how to forecast such events and their impacts on economic cycle concerning our basic framework, not going through complexities, super computing, grid computing, quantum computing, AI and other approaches demanding a lot of resources and energy? Is there a basic, simple, efficient and elegant solution for such problem?

I think there is. What about you?

Regards,
Omid Shahraki
IF1-IFoundationOne