I appreciate you sharing source of this research as “Downturn will be less sever than in the past” fails the sniff test based on ‘01 and ‘08. Further with current level of national debt, a recession can turn into a currency crisis if it occurs — making it a catastrophic one.

As we can see, markets are over-reacting to any signs of recession based on the magnitude of loss more than probability of occurrence. Concerns for slow recoveries may also translate into more severe recessions.

I have discussed this in more detail in my recent article: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/recession-2019-morteza-zijerdi-mba-cfa-c…

I appreciate you sharing your thoughts on this.