Heck predicting stock % returns is impossible because it includes the overlay of sentiment driving valuation. Even the analysts' predictions of $earnings' growth is always waaaaaay off. Yet the media almost always quotes numbers that have those predictions built in invisibly.

Eg at the end of Mch 2018, when all the year end data were published and absorbed, but before the Q1 info started leaking, the S&P published earnings estimates were for 32% growth. Using their estimates for Q4, the actual earnings growth was only 15%. http://ca.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xl…

And this is always the reality. The industry is a cheerleader and not to be taken seriously.