notices - See details
Notices
M
Mark (not verified)
7th March 2019 | 5:05am

I am a convert to rule-based decision-making in wealth management and enjoyed this article. But I would have liked to see a better explanation of the "Test for regret" advice: how does one do this? What is actually meant by "regret"?
Finally, I was surprised by Kahnemahn's comment that “When somebody tells you that they have a strong hunch about a financial event,” he said, “the safe thing to do is not to believe them.”
Assuming that one can boil down any such "hunch" to having a "win" or "lose" or "profit" or "loss" outcome, and assuming the largely unpredictable nature of human beings acting in stock and other markets, shouldn't the actual "safe" thing to think here be not to disbelieve the hunch but to accept that it has a roughly 50/50 chance of being right or wrong?