I share your vision on the "timing" accuracy, but in my opinion, the point made is a little misleading because although CAPE ratio is not a perfect timing tool, it serves to put expected forward returns into perspective.

On July 96 US 10 year Treasury yielded 6.8%. Given that studies showed that with those valuation levels, forward returns would probably be below market mean and being volatility in those months so high, one should ask: Is it worth it to continue looking for that equity risk premium or might it be more sensible to park the capital elsewhere?

I much rather earn the 6.8% with virtually no risk for ten years than make the stock market bet in that case.

Still... great piece. Big fan of your work Mark!