Experts in Insurance, Modern Finance, Political Science, Climatolgy etc. are all trying to do the impossible; predict the future. Perhaps its overconfidence bias at work. We can only infer so much from empirical data and then a black swan comes floating by, and more often then we think. Thats why insurance companies price their products with a huge margin of safety in their premiums as they prey on our anxieties. And thats why potfolio managers diversify.