Thanks for sharing your healthcare market insights. There is much to gain from the healthcare revolution, yet your key take-away in innovation (HGP) seems to cancel out with clinical/commercial risks! It seems you are looking in the wrong place and it doesn't have to be a 'needle in a haystack.' Remember, it takes 17 years on average for drug innovations to come to market and like you pointed out - 90% of the drug launches are wrong! Why then are we focusing on the 'needle in a haystack'?

The biggest innovation in healthcare is integrative medicine and biophysics technology! For one, let me point out Functional Medicine and their work with microbiome! They are in the Cleveland Clinic and have doubled in just one year under operations. There track record is astonishingly better as they treat root cause, not symptoms like drugs do. This is the new story you are missing.

The human genome project has spent over $5.4B. The result was sequencing ~22,300 gene expressions - a very limited capacity to identify what influences disease and health! Yes, an awesome advancement, yet it is the epigenetic influence of gene replication that really matters (influences DNA replication via the environment) and the microbiome is much more important! (In fact the 'junk' DNA they ignored for most of the HGP was later found to be the key.)

Mapping the microbiome's funding is a pittance at only $115M. Yet their are 100 trillion bacteria cells that exist in our body and have a direct gut-to-brain influence. It seems $$$ should really be pumped into this innovation. Rather, you get what you invest in - more drugs that produce 'needle in a haystack' phenomenon.