Hi Brad,

Thank you for your carefully considered and extended comments.

I actually don't think that I know better than markets all of the time. But I do think that it is possible to have expert opinion, and that some people do have more knowledge than others. Some people ARE more educated about future outcomes. Again, within investing, every active manager ought to believe this. I also think that with the growing sophistication of science, that we can be circumspect about many things that we previously could not be. And here is the real disagreement. I also think from a purely mercenary investment point of view, if you talk with a management team of a business and you believe they are delusional about their prospects, then you can short their securities. I can think of multiple contexts in which recognizing that markets are imperfect discounting mechanisms has a means of either increasing return, or avoiding loss.

Yours, in service,

Jason