Ziehan is an intelligent guy which makes it all the sadder he repeats the mistakes of yesterday’s doomsayers. Ziehan predicts the demise of many countries but not the demise of the United States which essentially faces the same problems other countries face: a birth rate that is so low, it fails to meet population replacement levels.
Ziehan is the Malthus of his day, ignoring technology and the changes it has forced on demographics. We no longer need massive amounts of people to farm our lands or build or cars. Autonomous vehicles will replace taxi drivers, truck drivers and have an impact on employment which should not be ignored, which is what Ziehan does. Robots have already replaced assembly line workers, drones are replacing delivery drivers, yet Ziehan ignores these technological impacts.
Sadly, where he is most incorrect is when he predicts the United States will be the least affected country because of demographics. Technology was the most important export of the United States. That is changing as countries from Australia to Sweden move towards a hydrogen economy and the United States under Trump is trying to return to coal. Coal like oil will shortly not be relevant and the countries that depend on them will also face a decreased relevancy.
But don’t worry, changes in technology will make third world countries of Russia as well. So what do we do when an angry left behind nation like Russia, is also a nuclear superpower? As Russia and the United States become irrelevant, how will the world handle the disposition of our nuclear arsenal?
We have time to secure our future and answer our own questions. For the United States to be secure, we must move past the policies of Donald Trump. Ziehan is smart enough to learn, grow, and be an influential figure in United States policy. I fear that is not true for Donald Trump.