* but if you track the performance of fired managers, you find that they tend to outperform their benchmarks
* and recently hired managers tend to underperform their benchmarks.
This would all be consistent with a large noise component to active returns. If these cycles of performance ups and downs coincide with manager reviews then you get the perfect recipe for destroying active returns
No you aren't missing anything:
* managers that underperform tend to get fired
* managers that outperform tend to get hired
* but if you track the performance of fired managers, you find that they tend to outperform their benchmarks
* and recently hired managers tend to underperform their benchmarks.
This would all be consistent with a large noise component to active returns. If these cycles of performance ups and downs coincide with manager reviews then you get the perfect recipe for destroying active returns