Larry,

I guess I look at the poll results differently. Just who are these 5% and what rock have they been living under? Only 17% of professional fund managers have outperformed their index over the last 15 years, a full 57% who were in business 15 years ago went bust. We wouldn't expect different results from a room full of monkeys throwing darts at stock tables, except that the monkeys would work for bananas.

As to the importance of asset allocation, please consider the following illustration: a retiree with $1M in 2000 needing 5% a year (adjusted for inflation) who invested in a combo of US/Int'l Total Stock Indexes was on the verge of going broke last month. The retiree who instead invested in a multi-asset class portfolio almost doubled their wealth net of withdrawals: http://bit.ly/2cG2wve

This is not to say behavior doesn't matter, because certainly it does as well. Just that asset allocation, something all of us can realistically have a positive impact on, matters a great deal and a great deal more than many academic studies on the matter give it credit for.