Hi Jake,

This was exactly why the end of this poll's write up asks and then states: "These results raise a natural question: What would help make accrual accounting more accurate? More thorough audits? Better internal accounting software and controls? Inclusion of economic, social, and governance (ESG) factors so the actual footprint of the business was better represented? Unified global accounting standards? Less complex businesses? And so on. We promise to revisit this question in a future poll."

Look for the follow up poll around the beginning of March, if memory serves.

Also, regarding models that CFAs use...no doubt, was anyone offering up the models of a Chartered Financial Analyst as a scion of accuracy? If anything, the famous concept of a 'Margin of Safety' is explicit acknowledgment that the models are inherently imprecise. One growth manager's DCF is a 'sell', while a value manager looking at the same numbers says it is a 'buy.' In fact, I think almost every research analyst and portfolio manager would tell you that they get paid for their opinions, fully recognizing the variability in their opinions relative to the competition. But they would also say, given all of that variability, that their accuracy in assessing the reality of a business, the economy, and of financial markets is what they hope will keep them employed.

Yours, in service,

Jason