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Notices
BC
Brad Case, PhD, CFA, CAIA (not verified)
21st January 2016 | 12:15pm

This is excellent, Ron--thanks for assembling these resources.
The start to this year has certainly been bearish, but I think financial writers have been a little too quick in labeling this a "high-volatility" market. I just published a short commentary (https://www.reit.com/data-research/research/market-commentary/has-volat…) saying that only after January 13 did stock market volatility move out of its "normal" range (which I define as the interquartile range of daily volatilities over the 16-year period since the beginning of 1999 for which I have daily data). Put another way, on one-fifth of trading days since the beginning of 1999 stock market volatility has been higher than its current value.
That's not to say the market can't become much more volatile going forward--I can't predict that with any confidence. But we're not there yet, and bearish is not always the same as volatile.