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Notices
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Will Ortel (not verified)
27th January 2016 | 1:21pm

Arka --

My great pleasure. I'm glad you got something out of it!

Let me try and explain this -- hopefully I won't add to the confusion. Let's start with defining GDP, which is the total value of the goods and services produced in a region or country. In the case of china, we know that some proportion of that GDP is driven by investment, and some proportion is driven by "something else".

We know with great certainty that contained within that "something else" is a whole slew of things...pretty much anything that you can think of. But with great certainty, we know that the economic activity that's produced by delivering goods to a factory, finishing them, and then exporting them again is also contained within it.

So: the entire pie is likely to shrink since there will be less of that activity in the coming months. That means the proportional representation of anything else is likely to be greater. Put another way, if investment is 50 percent of GDP when GDP sums to 100, you can expect it to be a higher percentage when GDP sums to 90, 80, etcetera.

Assuming, of course, that investment is not affected or is affected less quickly than trade. Hope that helps! Cheers and all best.

Will