Very worthwhile read. I very much enjoy the behavioural side of investing and found your analysis/ framework extremely enlightening.

Variant perception is often the most difficult element of investing to identify given it is abstract in comparison to, for example, analyzing financial statements. There are a couple of strategies that one can undertake to unearth market perceptions. As Philip A. Fisher famously coined, "Scuttlebutt" is best described as getting out on the front-lines to uncover anecdotes/ insights about the company from its customers, competitors and supplier. The point here is that presumably the information gathered is less biased then speaking directly to management, making it extremely useful for developing an informed opinion on the quality of the business in question. Once I have performed preliminary due diligence and have an understanding for the salient aspects of the business model (micro), I turn to sell side equity research to see how the Street thinks about the company, narrowing in to identify where consensus opinion might deviate from my own.

These are two strategies for identifying variant perception that I've used in an attempt to generate alpha. While I agree completely on the importance of variant perception, I would argue that another facet of your framework should consider the acceptable amount of time over which you would expect the variation to close. Typically, this requires a catalyst. Ultimately, I believe the most successful active investors are those that have a unique view and be able to anticipate revisions in consensus expectations, so to avoid those situations where you are waiting over an extended period of time (+3 years) and the market fails to reflect the correct view.

-Westley