Hi RP,

Yes, I am pretty sure that I understand, and thank you for your words to describe the phenomena. A lack of diversity in thought is one of the big flaws of the investing industry, in my opinion. Most industry thought is so predictable that you could probably create research report forms based on the typical cause and effect narrative of the industry. For example, If a) stock price declines but not by too much, then b) "now is a time to add to your position," because c) "the market is oversold."

I think the problem is so much more interesting than is usually admitted. Namely, our job as investors is to bring our minds as close to reality as is possible and then to be decisive with that understanding. Compare that with the usual approach: wait for news and companies that make sense given our preferred mental models, then make an almost automatic decision based on decision rules, and then finally, hope for the best.

Yours, in service,

Jason