Dear Ms Rudin,

I'm afraid that some of your assumptions are fundamentally flawed.

Most significantly, a decline in growth rate is in no way equitable to a market being in decline. Maturity is the phase which follows the growth phase, and can be characterised by said declining growth rates. Maturity can last a long time, and won't transition into decline until the market begins to shrink. It is quite obvious then that the smartphone market is not in decline. The market is merely saturated.

Further, there is no clear evidence that wearable devices will supplant smartphones. As far as I am aware, the Apple watch is primarily a second screen for an existing smartphone, and is indeed unable to function on it's own. Were it to do so, it would still merely be a tiny smartphone on a wrist strap. Google's glass is a far more revolutionary device, but is at this stage just a prototype. There are an incredible number of design and usability issues which will need to be addressed before it can become a mass marketable product. At this point in time even voice recognition software fails to perform reliably. It is very difficult to understand how anyone might that think that these types of devices could replace the smartphone in the near future.

Finally, an extinction event refers to a large reduction in biodiversity and life on the planet, usually as a result of a major change in the planet's climate. Please refrain from using to to refer to the decline of a sub-set of a product market.

Sincerely,

A. Commenter