Any successful investor needs to be able to change their mind when the facts change, and I hope I'm sensible enough to do so without drawing a line in the sand.

Hedge fund assets the last few years are the same or less than they were in '06-'07, when hedge funds demonstrated significant alpha. As a result, although the number of data points is thin, my sense is it's too early to tell. What seems a far more likely causation is the headwind created by low interest rates on hedge funds. I imagine if we saw rates up at "normal" levels and hedge funds still performed below expectations, that would be cause to re-evaluate. Until then, any sweeping conclusion can't be substantiated by facts, especially when many hedge funds have performed quite well in this period.