Hello Jason
I have been reading with great interest your posts on the subject of intuition, something I should know about "intuitively" but that you have so elegantly described - I particularly enjoy how you have related the subject to specific personal situations of your own.
I am trying to use the excellent model you have presented in this post in my daily speech as I think it will help me in personal and professional situations.
As a management consultant, and since I know it all of course-), I am quick to open my mouth.
You have a given me a mental model to use that will help organize the words before they leave my mouth.
Thanks very much for taking the time to put this series together - I know one portfolio manager in Toronto who uses intuition as an arsenal in her toolkit - now I know why.
By the way, I also think that your use of downside deviation is superior to standard deviation. I am testing the Sortino ratio in a quant model I am working on - will let you know how it performs relative to the Sharpe ratio, particularly since volatility is the new normal.
Best wishes
Savio