notices - See details
Notices
RR
Robert R. Mudra, CFA (not verified)
11th July 2015 | 10:42pm

Lauren,

Thank you! Great article, I really enjoyed it. On the second point, I can't agree more that properly defining the real purpose of the investment and the time horizon are critical elements of developing the right investment strategy.

However, I'm wary about the language in the #2 take-away which reads, "Uncertainty about returns generally diminishes over time" because many people are still led to believe that somehow risk is reduced over long time periods or that they will automatically earn an "expected" rate of return over a longer time horizon.

As a point of fact, the standard deviation of returns actually increases by the square root of time. For example, if the time horizon is 25 years then the standard deviation of returns (risk) over the period is (√25 years =) 5 times wider than the one-year standard deviation of returns. So, the risks to wealth accumulate with time and markets can and will fail to meet "expected" return assumptions.

Bob