Excellent article - thank you Jason.

Allow me to add another two anecdotal signals: When sector analysts at stockbrokers almost all ask to be reallocated from "old economy" sectors to whatever is hot, there's a bubble. During the late stages of the dot-com / TMT bubble in South Africa, there was barely a sell-side commodities or precious metals analyst left, and the big bonuses were going to the TMT analysts (who shamelessly punted IPOs being arranged by their own firms). Murphy had the last laugh: as TMT stocks collapsed, stocks of diamond and platinum producers soared.

Similarly, when there is only standing room at company presentations in some sector/s but as a buy-side portfolio you can arrange lengthy one-on-one time with CEOs of another sector, you should know what to do.