Hello BV,

With the expressed caveat that this is my opinion and not the opinion of CFA Institute...

I think we are right at the precipice of bubbles in many markets. For example, US stock market, US bond market, US high yield market, German real estate, Chinese real estate. I think that many of the anecdotal signs I named above are clearly happening. However, what is missing is the general intuitive sense of "devil-may-care" euphoria that I have experienced in the two bubbles of my investment career.

Bitcoin is an example of a market where there is that kind of euphoria. Most recently we also saw it in the gold market and Apple stock, too. In the precipice markets I just don't get that "pied piper" sense where people have become brainless and cult-like and will march right off of a cliff because they are so mesmerized. Put another way, there are enough people questioning the valuation levels, and enough people (especially the general public) not participating in the financial markets that it is hard for me to say screamingly: yes, we are in a bubble!

For what it's worth, in both the dot.com and real estate bubbles I was screaming bubble about 18-36 months prior to the POP! The portfolio I co-managed was 25-35% cash in both instances. If I were managing money now I would be about 10-15% in cash.

While I am on the subject, identifying a bubble is easy when compared with predicting when the danged thing is going to POP!

Let's be careful out there!

Jason