A very thoughtful piece. Popular products often exhibit a significant "return gap" between the average dollar weighted investor return (similar to an IRR) and the time weighted return. For instance PTTRX has a -2%/year trailing five-year return gap between the "average investor return" and the geometric rate of return. Successful market timing is consistent with a positive return gap and unsuccessful market timing is consistent with a negative return gap. Have you had a chance to look at the return gaps for various “bank loan” funds?