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Notices
MA
M Ashok (not verified)
30th August 2013 | 4:33am

I am quite surprised that you again made a comparison, this time between Russian default and ongoing Indian crisis. Let me quickly make a few brief points.

1. Russia had a fixed currency peg going into the crisis. At some point during the crisis the experimented with a 'floating peg'. It didn't work and then the eventually had to devalue the ruble

2. Russian economy then was very weak. Their internal fiscal position was bad. They had started defaulting on internal debt repayments already, a sign of impending external defaults.

3. Russia was running a high inflation of close to 80% before the crisis. Russia was a welfare state (continues to be) and welfare costs ballooned through the roof.

4. Russian relied on crude and metal exports as primary drivers of the economy. This resulted in rising tide of $ inflows. But when crude and metal prices fell for a while in '98, Russia ran out of $ inflows precipitating the crisis.

5. Russia was funding a war in Chechnya before the crisis! This weakened the govt reserves meant for a rainy day.

These are not the circumstances prevailing in India. Currency is free float, though central bank intervenes only to restrain volatility, not levels. Not relying on single industry for livelihood. No war thankfully. Inflation, yes in high single digit but not out of control.

Thanks for your inputs.
M Ashok, CFA