Terrible analogy. The turkey has exactly the same viewpoint about dying as humans, i.e, it will die one day. No bets on that. But there is uncertainty for how we will die- and the black swan event would be if turkey farmers so fall in love one year that they refuse to sell come Thanksgiving. Low probability events with potentially high impact are ibecoming more frequent, but paradoxically, have lower than expected impacts. Take Eurozone events of the recent past. Greece, Italy, Cyprus- stocks fell, but no strong currency moves! Explainations of past events, specially personal insights of past events, just does not guide for future, as the players, like footballers, quickly absorb lessons. Dr Taleb tells a good tale,though.