notices - See details
Notices
RR
Ron Rimkus, CFA (not verified)
6th February 2013 | 11:53pm

Hi Sameer, thanks for the question. the Current Account Surplus in Japan has enabled the country to operate as a closed system whereby they are able to recylce their money into the purchase of JGB's. [If and] When this shifts to a Current Account Deficit, the system will spring a leak, so to speak. The magnitude and duration of the deficit will determine how quickly or slowly the leak will happen, but as it happens, a smaller and smaller percentage of the money flowing through Japan can stay in Japan - meaning that demand for JGB's will almost certainly decline in corresponding amounts. As the BOJ's money printing leaks into higher inflation, the markets will also seek to raise yields. As yields rise, Japan's fiscal deficit expands, etc... The virtuous cycle turns vicious if and when the CAS becomes a CAD.