notices - See details
Notices
JB
James Bailey (not verified)
17th October 2012 | 1:59pm

"Elaborating upon cognitive errors, he said that investors wrongly frame trading as a solitary jog in the park when it is really competitive running. He reminded investors that in financial markets, they are trading against the most well-informed and resourceful competitors; their chances of beating the market may only be as good as their chances of winning a 100 meters dash against Usain Bolt."

This is going to far. Bolt is the greatest sprinter ever. We don't compete against only the greatest investors, but the average of many - poor ones and great ones. The probability of beating the market in any one year is perhaps 50%; and over 5 years probably 25%, whereas the probability of beating Bolt is near 0% (maybe Bolt trips 1 out of every 500 times he runs).

But I agree that rational is stupid to assume. Thanks for the overview Usman!