This exists as just a thought exercise at this time, I wouldn’t know how to begin measuring it!

I’m starting to form the opinion that all stock prices are equally possible in all time periods, including 1 sigma and higher sigma events. So much for normal and other distributions!

The reason we don’t see more higher sigma events (but still way more than any distribution probability would predict) is because WE make it that way - we want it to be normal and so it is. After all, the market is just two parties determining a price based on internal and external factors and personal opinions at that time - how does that fit into any distribution, normal, log normal or whatever.

Normal distribution, of course, is fine for marks in class or heights of US males, where there is no personal or human psychology involved, it just is what it is.

But you gotta measure something right…

What are your thoughts?