Agreed, on the sampling part. Yes the leptokurtic distribution (over the long term) did take me by surprise. The fat tails are compensating as well -in shorter time frames. I mean a negative fat tail events is most often followed by positive fat tail events. The interval could vary, but its not very long. My point is one always hears about tail-risk, but they don't obviously discuss the upside-tail-risk, do they?