Hello Mark, this is a good article and I am happy to see people talk openly of limitations in understanding how market participants act. I think it is rational for investors to accept the noise in a theory or a model and admit to uncertainty than commit mistakes in the quest for perfection. From a global perspective, investors don’t just price risk but a lot of other factors that serve as barriers to investment. Even if that aspect is overlooked, the theory of defining equilibrium prices on the basis of models that rely on historical data does not sound practical.