These are all good points. At the end of the day, the Federal Reserve has very blunt tools, and I would be shocked if they somehow defy all odds and navigate a soft landing. I recently visited London with my family and dropped by the Bank of England museum. They had an exhibit in which visitors had to balance a steel ball on a marker that depicted a 2% inflation rate in a tube. Visitors would then push a button that would create an “economic shock“ and the tube would move. The visitor would then struggle to return the ball to the 2% inflation marker. Inevitably, they would overshoot several times before they could get back to the 2% level. This is affectively what’s happening right now. I think it is highly unlikely that the Fed returns to 2% inflation without triggering a recession and brief period of deflation first. That’s just the way it works.