The Fed seems unable to objectively address the issues of its role, and the timing of its actions. When QE turns to QT nobody knows what the results will be, and a global geopolitical situation in flux will have effects equally hard to measure. Excess reserves remain in large banks, so interest rate increases are essentially raising the price of something not in short supply, though critical items like food and energy may be. The Fed may simply be too late with too little and its position may have to shift because of war or rapid climate change.