notices - See details
Notices
JW
James Weir (not verified)
6th September 2022 | 7:44am

With regard to Mr Fines's first question and his assertion that the S&P 500 outpacing the broader economy had to be because of QE and 'excess liquidity', there are two observations. First, the stock market bears little resemblance to the economy, and never really has. If 37% of the index is high margin tech-related businesses, you can expect it will perform differently to a low growth economy.
Second, we are constantly reminded share prices are driven by EPS. Between 2010-2020 the S&P reported 11.3% CAGR in EPS ($54 - $158), and the index rose by 11.2% CAGR (1115 - 3231). That means the change in PE was actually -0.1% per year. If the share market had risen because of 'excess liquidity', it would have been reflected in the PE, not in EPS.
One final point: if US asset prices were 'artificially inflated' by the Fed increasing its balance sheet by 178% over that decade, why didn't we see the same thing happen in Japan, +483%, and Europe, +237%?