Two things: the Phillips Curve may have worked in an era where globalization was relatively small. In an open macroeconomic framework, it does not work.

Also, the Fed usually forgets when it is changing policy that the real economy gets affected far more slowly (long and variable lags) than the financial economy -- which occasionally blows up from too much tightening. If that has any significant impact on the banks, the Fed will reverse policy in a heartbeat.

The banks seem to be in good shape now, and they haven't expanded lending in risky areas in the recent past... so maybe this isn't an issue this cycle. But you never can tell where the leverage is building up. Developed country governments are far more levered than they used to be. Combine that with competitive devaluation, and who knows what might happen?