One can use the price / moving average cross in a more "unique" and "specific" way, by combining it with: 1) an observation of the price / moving average relationship on "fixed" reference dates during the calendar year and 2) where that fixed reference observation lies within the four year "Presidential term cycle".

As described in this research study https://tinyurl.com/yyf48e4q , using "June 30th" as a "reference date" for observing the price / moving average relationship, since 1933, positive forward market returns have correlated to periods when the "monthly" basis S&P 500 price has resided "above" it's moving average value on June 30th of the given year ( chart 1 )

Conversely, since 1933, negative forward market returns have correlated to periods when the S&P 500 price has resided below it's moving average value on June 30th of the given year, AND those periods have fallen within the first, third, or fourth year of the "Presidential term cycle" ( see chart 1 in Appendix ), and especially within the 1st Presidential year ( Table 2 ).

July - June periods commencing within the 2nd Presidential term year have produced the "highest" average positive market returns, with the July - June periods commencing within the 3rd and 4th Presidential term years producing second and third highest average positive returns ( see Table 1 Appendix ). Therefore, observing the price / moving average relationship on June 30th of the 2nd Presidential term year is "exempt" from the signaling conditions.

Further filtering of the above strategy signaling, using data measuring the spread between the 3 mo. T-bill yield and the 10 year Treasury yield, shows that, since 1960, when a rate "inversion" occurred ( 3 mo T- bill yield residing above the 10 year yield ), it coincided, with varying lead times, with some of the largest July - June declines, as indicated by the "defensive" market trend signaling periods generated https://tinyurl.com/53b7hacn

This illustrates that, in order to extract order amongst the chaos, it is necessary to use an ensemble of "variables", in specific ways, versus an overly simplistic use of a "single" variable. And it illustrates that a "fixed" reference date eliminates an unnecessary number of false "whipsaw" signals ( signals produced by the conventional price / moving average methodology ), thus keeping capital invested in equity based assets for much "longer" periods.

In 2021, a first Presidential term year, the S&P500 price resided "above" it's moving average value on June 30th https://imgur.com/a/aOpRvzY .