In a poll conducted earlier this week in the CFA Institute Financial NewsBrief, we asked readers which country or region will have the greatest effect on financial markets over the next year.
Poll: From what country or region do you expect economic news over the next 12 months to have the greatest global effect on financial markets?
The US housing market is showing strong price appreciation on a national basis, up about 10% year over year. The Japanese yen is down about 20% in value as a direct result of the massive quantitative easing in Abenomics. The Chinese economy is showing further signs of slowing as well as increasing challenges in their banking system. Meanwhile, the financial markets in the EU remain subdued, and the European economy is clearly in recession.
Even though the United States is "only" 25% of the global economy, 43% of 960 respondents expect the US economy to drive market events in the next 12 months. In light of these results, it is of little surprise that the US dollar has been strengthening and US bond yields have begun climbing, reaching 2.2% as of this writing, from a level of 1.66% only six weeks ago (on May 1, 2013).
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