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Bridge over ocean
15 November 2019 Multimedia

Overconfidence in Human Decision Making (Take 15 Series)

  1. Ryan O. Murphy

What does overconfidence mean, and where does one draw the line between confidence and overly optimistic behavior? In this Take 15, Ryan O. Murphy offers practical tips on restraining this common bias.

Overconfidence is a behavioral bias that plagues many investors. What does overconfidence mean, and where does one draw the line between confidence and overly optimistic behavior? What are the most common forms of overconfidence? In this episode, Ryan O. Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management, provides the answers and offers practical tips on restraining this common bias.

The Take 15 Series is a collection of illuminating, short conversations with noted economists, best-selling authors, leading researchers, and successful practitioners on topics ranging from geopolitics and whistleblowing to irrationality and outlooks.