Using a large sample of countries and 60 years of data, the authors found a
strong and intuitive link between demographic transitions and both GDP growth
and capital market returns. Unlike previous researchers, who used ad
hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors imposed a
smooth and parsimonious polynomial curve across all age groups. They also
performed robustness checks and produced forecasts for the coming decade, with
all the necessary caveats.
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