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Bridge over ocean
1 May 2011 Financial Analysts Journal Volume 67, Issue 3

The Margin of Safety and Turning Points in House Prices: Observations from Three Developed Markets

  1. Mitsuru Mizuno
  2. Isaac T. Tabner, CFA

Using quarterly data from 1960 (United Kingdom), 1963 (United States), and 1977
(Japan) through the second quarter (Q2) of 2010 (all three markets), the authors
examined long-run mean-reverting relationships between house prices and
inflation, disposable income, GDP, and rents. At the end of Q2 2010, U.S. prices
were below their mean-reverting levels and at the lower end of their historical
range. Equivalent U.K. and Japanese prices were at or slightly above their
mean-reverting levels.

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